Tag Archives: disaster

Is climate change going to wipe out humanity? No!

Desolated city

Creator: gremlin Credit: Getty Images

The disastrous effects of a changing climate – famine, floods, fires and extreme heat – threaten our very existence.

https://www.un.org/en/content/common-agenda-report/summary.shtml

This quote, from the very first page of the United Nations Common Agenda Report Summary, is wrong. Yes, there is a very real threat – but it isn’t a threat to the “very existence” of humanity. It is highly unlikely that climate change will cause such widespread death in the human population to reduce the 7,953,952,577 or so individuals now alive down to the 500 or so that would be necessary to repopulate the Earth.

What is threatened? The way of life enjoyed by the wealthy people who live in the richest nations on the planet. Yes, the poor are likely to die first under the influence of climate degradation. The wealthy will be able to move inland, to higher ground, or further from the Equator. They will be able to buy expensive food and build fire resistant, air conditioned homes. Yes, quality of life is likely to decline even for the rich. But no, climate change is not going to wipe out the human race. A comet strike? That could do it. Huge solar flares? Possibly. Global nuclear war? We might not survive that. But climate warming due to human activity? This is a self-regulating problem.

Why is climate change self-regulating? Because, as changing climate conditions kills off our excessive population, poorest first, it will also decrease the industrial activity that causes it. Humans will lose the technical capacity to keep pumping carbon and other pollutants into the atmosphere. Without such interference the planet will reach equilibrium again. Overall mean temperatures may be hotter than the previous they have been in more than 100,000 years but, as a species, we are likely to adapt.

 

The last time the Earth was this warm was 125,000 years ago

https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2017/01/18/hottest-year-on-record/96713338/

 

Modern humans have been around at least 196,000 years and maybe as much as 300,000 years.  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_modern_human). They have lived through major climate changes that they did not cause. Some of us more modern people will too.

I’m not suggesting that there is nothing to worry about. The possibility of knocking human progress back to the stone age is no laughing matter. The likelihood of a global population collapse as cultures struggle to adapt to warmer and more volatile weather is not fun to contemplate. But does exaggerating the consequences of climate change help or hinder the popular crusade to halt human impact on planet-wide weather? By suggesting that the human race will not survive we make it easier to dismiss the whole issue.

IMHO, overstating the consequences of climate change empowers climate change deniers.

Flames rise from the remains of a house that burned down in Santa Rosa. (Jeff Chiu/AP)

 

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Filed under Climate Change Commentary, Future Gazing, Uncategorized

The Fire is out, now how do I help you?

On October 8, 2017 a small fire broke out in rural Sonoma County, California. By the time is was put out 110 thousand acres of wild land and heavily populated areas had burned, 8 thousand structures were gone. We had several thousand newly traumatized and unhoused residents in our community. Full recovery is not expected for three to seven years if at all.  I’ve been doing whatever I can to help people whom we originally called “fire victims” and now refer to as “fire survivors”.

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This satellite image using shortwave infrared (SWIR) shows damage from the wildfire in Santa Rosa. (Digital Globe via AP)

Three days ago a similar horror began in the southern California county of Ventura which is, as of this writing, still only 10% contained. 143 thousand acres have already been consumed.

I’d like to help her but have no idea what I can do that would be helpful and meaningful.

A few days ago a friend from New York emailed me:

“I know you have been heavily involved in the recovery effort after the awful fires in northern CA. I just learned that a good friend of ours lost her house to fire in Ventura. It was very fast and she was able to escape with only her cat. She has nothing. I’d like to help her but have no idea what I can do that would be helpful and meaningful. Your insights and suggestions would be appreciated.”

Here’s what I wrote to my friend and am now sharing with you:

Ask yourself and your friend…

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Evacuee Martha Lynn rests with her dogs Broonzy (not pictured) and Golly (right) at a Red Cross shelter after evacuating her home following the Tubbs fire in Santa Rosa, Calif., on Monday, Oct. 9, 2017. (Photo: Gabrielle Lurie, The Chronicle)

1. Does she have a comfortable place to stay with adequate food, clothing and any medications she needs? For the next few days? For the next few weeks?

2. Does she have a computer connection so she can contact support agencies? They won’t get into full swing until about a week after the fires are actually out.

3. Does she have enough money for the next few days? Next 6 months?
4. Is she emotionally stable enough to cope with all the stupid paperwork that will be necessary in the coming months?
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Terrie Burns stands in the middle of her destroyed at the scene of the Tubbs Fire in Santa Rosa, Ca., on Monday October 9, 2017. Massive wildfires ripped through Napa and Sonoma counties early Monday, destroying hundreds of homes and businesses on Monday October 9, 2017 (Photo: Michael Macor, The Chronicle)

5. Has she applied for FEMA and SBA funds? Although these services are mostly targeted to low income folks there are usually some benefits for all fire survivors. The SBA has very low interest loans for individuals to replace personal property lost in the fires. SBA is not only for businesses. She must register with FEMA and then apply to the SBA to establish eligibility within 2 months of the fire. Then she will have years to apply for actual grants and loans should she decide to go forward with any of them.

I like to think of a fire survivor’s psychological state as somewhat similar to what happens when you unexpectedly find yourself living in a foreign country. The environment is strange, the people and their customs are strange. You have none of your familiar surroundings and life props – like your favorite music. It’s important to resupply yourself with some of those props so that you can take an emotional vacation back to your old life on occasion. Life will never be the same but a little respite from the newness can help. In intercultural communications we talk about the “W curve” of culture shock. I suspect the emotional waves of disaster shock are comparable and much like other grief trajectories. It’s reassuring to know that recurring waves of emotion, from total numbness to euphoria and back, are “normal”, i.e. experienced by most people. You’re not going crazy when they happen.
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For you, as a helper/supporter, patience is the most valuable gift you can offer. It’s too soon to go beyond question 1 right now — unless she is asking. Even then, don’t expect her to remember what was said and be prepared to go over everything several times. The recovery path is different for each person or family. Losing “everything” is different for an insured homeowner with a strong family or friends network than for a socially isolated renter who was financially insecure before the fire. They will all have shock, grief and frustration in common but the assistance they need from you will be very different. Listen carefully but wait until your friend is ready to talk. Don’t try to send her “stuff” until she has a closet again.
Recovery from these fires will take 3 to 7 years for many people. Right now, your friend’s mind is likely to be bouncing between surviving the next two days and envisioning life after rebuilding. Make sure tomorrow is covered and hold on to your desire to help so it’s still there in 6 months when the real, long-term needs begin to kick in.

Many of you who read this will have more experience helping people navigate the trauma of fire and other disasters than I do. Please add your comments and suggestions in the comment section below. If you think this piece contains good advice go ahead and make it your own. Use it and share it. This is a time for open community giving. What’s here is a gift, not a piece of intellectual property. A great society is one that pulls together in time of need and celebrates the richness of its sharing.

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Filed under Community Resilience: Disaster Preparedness, Response, Recovery, Uncategorized