Category Archives: Future Gazing

Behold! The Trojan Horse (from 1985)

or Escape from the Classroom 25.7

ABSTRACT

This background paper for a symposium on the school of the future reviews the current instructional applications of computers in the classroom (the computer as a means or the subject of instruction), and suggests strategies that administrators might use to move toward viewing the computer as productivity tool for students, i.e., its use for word processing, database management, and other applications. Factors favoring the use of computers as a means or object of instruction are discussed, including teacher ignorance compounded by uninformed teacher trainers, and a bias in the literature in favor of the current approaches. Steps that principals can take to encourage the extension of teacher use of productivity tools to student use of appropriate tools are suggested. Fourteen references are listed. (MES)

INTRODUCTION

“I wouldn’t mind learning to write programs to solve MY math and science homework problems!”

“Well, I want to learn to USE the computer, not program it!”

“I’m a writer. I want to use the computer to help me compose and edit my work.”

“Ha! The computer is not a typewriter! It’s a scientific tool. I want to use the computer to help with experiments. Why should I have to write a program that is already on the market? I need to learn to use programs.” (Jackson, 1984:65)

These comments, made by middle school students in a critique of their school’s “computer unit”, reflect my own approach to computing. The computer (with appropriate software) is a tool that I use to accomplish my goals. It almost never “teaches me anything (except humility) although I occasionally use it as an electronic page turner for text stored on diskette. I often bump up against the limits of hardware or software and realize that there is no way for me to command the computer to do exactly what I want done. But the computer never tells me what to do nor does it make judgements about my performance. Who would want it any other way?

Apparently, the adults who inhabit most schools (i.e. teachers and administrators) have other ideas about the role computers should play in the classroom. The computer is seen as an “instructional tool”, a fantastic new delivery medium that teachers can use to expand their influence beyond the ordinary limits of time, space and human patience.

In this paper, I will explore a current teacher-administrator vision of classroom computing and identify some of the factors that keep computing “instructional”. Next I will suggest some strategies that principals might use to encourage teachers to move toward viewing the computer as a “productivity tool” for their students. I will close with some comments on how the instructional view of computing works to prevent substantive change in our secondary schools.

VISIONS OF CLASSROOM COMPUTING

To avoid misunderstanding, let us begin by differentiating clearly between ”instructional use” and” productivity use” of computers. Instructional computing includes a variety of methods of managing and delivering curriculum and student  evaluation. The familiar five ‘C’s’ come under this heading: Computer-asisted-instruction (CAI), computer managed instruction(CMI), computer based instruction (CBI), computer aided learning (CAL) and computer aided teaching(CAT) (Lawton 1982). We might apply the title: Computer as means of instruction to these uses. Other instructional computing subjects are: computer literacy, computer science, and computer programing. These three might be more appropriately entitled: Computer as object of instruction. There is some variation of opinion about who should qualify as computer literate. Many proponents felt that “anyone who has written a program“ has paid the appropriate dues (Nevision 1976) while others have stronger programing requirements (Leurhman 1984) or advocate for components of history, terminology, and social implications (Klasen 1981). But all agree that information about computing forms the bulk of the curriculum to be studied. The literature of computers in education is replete with suggestions and arguments about the methodology, impact and effectiveness of instructional computing – both the “computer as means” and “computer as object” varieties. One can even find reference to use of computers as ”Tool,Tutor, and Tutee” (Region VI TEC Center, 1983). But further investigation usually reveals that ”tool” means tool for the teacher to use in delivery, management or evaluation. When the ”tool” reaches the hands of the student, it will be applied only as a “tool for solving problems” defined and presented by the teacher. A search for published discussion of in-school use of the computer as a tool for use by students under their autonomous control yields little fruit.

A few peachy references do show up if one is persistent. Marc Tucker comments:

“What is important, in my opinion, is helping the student to acquire the skills necessary to use the computer as a powerful tool in a wide range of applications, a tool at the service of the student. For some students, the power of this tool will come through an ability to program it, but for many it could and should come from knowing how to use the computer, its peripheral equipment, its associated telecommunications systems and off-the-shelf applications programs, to get things done – how to use it for writing, editing, getting and analyzing information, making drawings and graphs, doing differentiations in mathematics, recording and interpreting laboratory data, and countless other tasks. These are the skills likely to be increasingly important over the years for vast numbers of present day students (Tucker: 316)

These computer applications, often called “productivity tools“ in the lingo of office automation, are no different when used by students than when used by office clerical staff or business executives. In fact, teachers are beginning to discover the secret of computerized productivity tools for themselves. When asked to rank tasks in order of importance, teachers in one study responded: 1) select courseware, 2) integrate courseware, 3) help students with special needs through understanding principles of instruction, 4) do word processing. “However, if only those with a personal knowledge of particular applications were considered, the items above ranked; 4 [word processing],1 [select courseware]” (Godard,1984:14). Word processing was ranked as the most important task, leaving courseware selection to second place. In other words, those in the know know that productivity tools such as word processing make it worthwhile to learn to operate a computer.

Although teachers are beginning to realize that productivity tools exist, the prevailing attitude was expressed by this comment from an instructor from the San Mateo County TEC Center at the 1984 West Coast Computer Faire in San Francisco:

“Oh, no, we don’t teach advanced programs like VisiCalc. Our students [teachers] are still beginners. They’re learning to program in BASIC.

This teacher of teachers was evidently unaware that it takes several days, if  not weeks, for an individual to produce a useful program in BASIC (some of us never do achieve that goal) but that most people who sit down with VisiCalc or a similar spreadsheet application program experience gains in productive output within a few hours.

FACTORS FAVORING INSTRUCTIONAL COMPUTING

The step from teacher use of productivity tools to student use of those same tools should be an easy one. Why isn’t it happening in classrooms? The answer is documented in thousands of articles about introducing computers into schools. They discuss the development and use of ”educational software”, not application programs. They assume that the teacher’s role is to transmit the facts and skills of the curriculum, to “instruct”. The computer is seen only as an instrument to augment that role. Teachers produce lesson plans, lectures, grades, dittos, assignments and student gains on test scores. Software that helps in these tasks, no mater how crudely, is offered to teachers.

The factors identified so far, teacher ignorance compounded by uninformed teacher trainers and reinforced by a one-sided literature, would be sufficient to seriously hamper any teacher who set out to acquire knowledge of productivity tools and then to transmit this knowledge to students. But the problem gets worse when we consider the roles teachers set themselves and their students.The step from teacher use to student use can not be taken until teachers really do use general purpose productivity tools for themselves. Teachers simply do not have time to master all possible uses of computers. Until we stop encouraging them to become masters at curriculum development and complex computer programing all within a single summer ”vacation” they will miss the personal advantages of word processing, spreadsheets, simplified database management packages, and electronic communications.

Not only are teachers naive about their own productivity, they rarely think of their task as one of increasing the student’s ability to produce his own learning. Almost nowhere is the teacher presented with Arthur J. Lewis’ point of view that:

we can encourage students to assume responsibility for their own learning – to become self-directed, lifelong learners. The ultimate goal of education is to shift to the individual the burden of his or her own education. (Lewis, 1983:10)

Teachers present the opposite point of view by placing themselves between the learner and the subject matter to be mastered. When they chose this strategy in computer use they are under constant fire to acquire skills at a formidable pace just to keep up with some students. Some teachers react by refusing to allow students to use productivity tools at all.

Why might a teacher not wish to permit a student to use a word processor, spreadsheet or database management program to prepare work for class credit? Because to do so will require adjustments in student evaluation, teacher pedagogy, and the teacher’s role vis-a-vis the student. For example, the teacher can no longer give credit for spelling, arithmetic, or a “normally neat” presentation. Just how much improvement in content should be expected when the student no longer has to retype after editing? How can a naive teacher evaluate “help” received by the student from parents, friends, and software? And how does a teacher cope with a student who has demonstrated the motivation and the capacity to master the use of this computer tool ON HIS OWN, without the guiding hand of the teacher? The consequences of keeping computing “instructional” are now being seen in schools around the country. As Decker Walker points out in “Computers in the Curriculum,” (Walker,1985)

the current mechanisms for curricular change are on overload. We can’t design courses, develop materials, train teachers and obtain equipment fast enough.

Worse yet, there is a perceived need for “educational software” that no one seems to be able to supply. Many advocacy groups, including National Commission on Industrial Innovation and Apple Computer’s “Kid’s Can’t Wait” program are attempting to use what Walker describes as “intervention from higher authorities.” Such use of political pressure may succeed in getting hardware inside the school building, but the same bottleneck is encountered at the building level: untrained teachers, difficulty in integrating computing into the existing curriculum and lack of software. Walker’s third strategy, that of sidestepping the formal school program and acquiring computing skills through alternative channels, solves half of the problem. It gets some kids using computers. However, it exacerbates the equity issue which we will discuss further below.

The fact that many parents are seeing to it that kids have access to computers and their accompanying productivity software places many public school teachers in an uncomfortable position. Either they must permit the use of computer output in their classes or they risk losing all credibility in the eyes of many students.

PRINCIPAL TO THE RESCUE!

The development of this dilemma signals a critical turning point in the use of computers at any school. It is important that the classroom teacher receive strong support from the principal and the district or the road taken is likely to be drill and practice administered under strictly controlled access conditions. The teacher must be provided with the opportunity to become an active computer tool user so that he or she can understand and share in the changes that the students are experiencing. Opportunity often takes the form of a computer in the teacher’s lounge(Le 1983) and the availability of software of the same type the students are using. In addition, manuals, magazines, and knowledgeable personnel (often another teacher) need to be identified and at hand.

The building principal is likely to be uniquely positioned to mobilize space, “emergency funds”, and staff assignments to optimize the acquisition of computing skills by the teachers. He can set an emotional tone that favors encouragement of student use of computer tools without requiring the teacher to be an expert on every piece of software the students use. The principal can also use the authority of his or her office to face the problem of equal access to computing facilities for all students. High priority can be given to having at least one computer with productivity software available to students in a resource center or library during school hours. If campus facilities are off limits to students after hours, the principal can make arrangements with public libraries and other community facilities to insure that students who do not have private computing resources can use the public ones (Loop1982). Equity problems are not easy to deal with but limiting computer use to structured drill and practice for set periods of time is no solution at all.

SUBSTITUTE OR SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE?

Now that we have come full circle – back to that paradigm of instructional computing, drill and practice – let us see if we can understand how computing might be used to maintain the status quo in schools. The argument rests on George Spindler’s notion of “substitute change” and “change in principle” (Spindler 1985). Substitute change occurs when a new technique or “instrumentality” is adopted for performing the same task by the same people. Spindler offers the example of substituting a gas-powered rototiller for a horse-drawn plow to prepare field for planting. The same farmer uses a new technique to perform an old task. There may be some increase in speed and capacity with an accompanying decrease in labor required. However, the same field is plowed by the same person. Now consider change in principle – ownership of the fields is consolidated, large, high-sped cultivator-planters are employed by entirely different personnel. Such a change has major impact on the daily life of the farmer. A change from delivery of curricular material by the teacher through books and lectures to the delivery of the same material via computer is a substitute change. It permits the maintenance of a teacher-centered classroom within which a constant body of facts and skills are transmitted to the student. The addition of six to eight weeks worth of facts about computers or a new course in computer programing does not constitute change in principle for a school.

The introduction of computer-based productivity tools for student use is a small change, but it is a change in principle. It acknowledges that the product of schooling is learning, not teaching. Further, it establishes a partnership between the student (or learner) and the tool. It is the beginning of a school-wide shift predicted by futurists, from CAI or CMI to computer applications and programing (Dede1983). But it is also a hope shared by more conservative educators such as Henry Levin:

In our view there must be a greater component of problem solving, analytical reasoning, reading, and writing across the curriculum, rather than limiting instruction in these areas to specific courses. The computer should be considered a tool for learning rather than a subject that will displace more fundamental learning required for an educational foundation. (Levin,1983:5)

John Holt, George Leonard, Herb Cole and scores of other radical educators of the sixties accused the schools of blindfolding the children and holding them back from the real learning of which they were capable. Many of us who helped to bring computers into classrooms in these vents thought we were importing an educational Trojan horse which would help students to tear down the constricting school walls from the inside out. Today we see our valiant charger giving educational pony rides while parents and politicians alike decry the impending downfall of our civilization because the educational systems is failing to prepare the next generation for responsible, creative adulthood.

Can anyone believe a problem of such magnitude is soluble with “better educational software?”

2015 Addendum:

Students, teachers, schools, computers and the internet have come a long way since the early 1980s when the research for this paper was conducted. Even so, the underlying tension between Teacher-centered and Learner-centered education is clearly visible in the 2015 discourse about computer use in schools. The connected electronic device, whether game box, telephone, tablet or general purpose computer, has done its work as Trojan Horse and empowered students to breach the walls of the classroom. Students now engage in sophisticated learning activities any time, anywhere although they may not always label such activities “educational”. Those who used to oppose all use of computing for learning have backed away from that position and now focus on the role of electronic technology in the teacher-led classroom.

2025 Addendum:

I’m still fighting this fight with some superficial changes. Today many educators are bemoaning what they view as “cheating” when students use AI-based Large Language Models (LLMs) to access facts and improve grammar and narrative style in essays. While there are some pitfalls to be avoided when relying on AI to ‘tell the truth’, forbidding its use seems like insisting students use their fists to pound in nails instead of hammers when building a house. There is a digital Trojan Horse in the pocket of almost every American teenager and its breaking down the schoolhouse walls. My grandchildren no longer expect their school teachers to dispense the knowledge they need to thrive in the world they are inheriting. The kids will surge ahead. I predict that educators who don’t adapt will be left behind.

 

REFERENCES

Computer Training Opportunities, Course Announcement Brochure from Region VI Teacher Education and Computer Center, Hayward, CA, September November, 1983

Dede,Christopher; ”Likely Evolution of Computer Use in Schools” in Educational Leadership, v41 n1 p2 Sept,1983

Godard, Wiliam P.; Pereira Mendoza, Lionel; “Three Perspectives for Computer Applications in Education” in AEDS Journal, v17 n3 p14-23 Spr, 1984

Havelock, Ronald G.,The Change Agent’s Guide to Innovation In Education, Educational Technology Publications, Englewood Cliffs, NewJersey, 1973

Jackson, Roberta; “Learning With and About Computers” in Computers in the Schools, v1 n3 p 65-71 Fall 1984

Klasen, Dan; “Computer Literacy” in Harper, Denis 0.; Stewart, James H.; RUN: Computer Education, Brooks/Cole Publishing Company, Monterey, CA; 1983

Lawton, Johnny; Gerschner, Vera T.; “A Review of the Literature on Attitudes Towards Computers and Computerized Instruction” in Journal of Research and Development in Education, v16 n1 p 50-55 Fall, 1982

Le, Helen C.; “How to Lure Teachers to the Microcomputer” in Principal, v62 n3 p26-27 jan, 1983

Levin, Henry M.; Rumberger, Russell W.; “Secondary Education in an Age of High Technology” in NASP Bulletin, v67 n467 p49-55 Dec, 1983

Lewis, Arthur J.; “Education for the 21st Century” in Educational Leadership, v41 n1 p10 Sept, 1983

Loop, Liza; Anton, Julie; Zamora, Ramon; ComputerTown; Reston, VA, 1983

Nevison, John M.; Computing as a matter of course: the instructional use of computers at Dartmouth College; Kiewit Computation Center, Dartmouth, NH, 1976

Tucker, Marc; “Computers in Schools: A Plan in Time Saves Nine” in Theory Into Practice, V2 n4 p 313-320

Walker, Decker F.; ”Computers in the Curriculum” photocopy of typescript from author, Stanford University, 1985

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Practicing Being 80 – Episode 1

Very few of us have had the privilege of being taught how to grow old. For most of us, this is a process of discovery. I began my  80th year a few months ago and I’m trying to figure out how to play the game of life in this last phase. How did I get

from this:

 

 

 

to this:

I wake up each morning in my cozy bed and stretch. What hurts today? Will I be hot, cold, or comfortable if I move the covers? Will I wet the bed if I don’t immediately rush to the bathroom? What do I absolutely have to get done today? Does it matter what I wear? Do I have to get dressed at all? What would I enjoy doing today? What is the purpose of my life in this “end-game” stage?

Others are raising their grandchildren, running countries, or meeting adoring crowds at 80. Although I am apparently healthy, I don’t have that much energy.  I dread taking on new obligations and the isolation of the pandemic has gotten me used to staying at home. My income is stable, my daily needs are met. My children and grandchildren are doing well. In spite of all this good fortune I feel immersed in a pool of sadness. How do I make this an era of joy and satisfaction?

 

Perhaps the problem I am facing now began in my early teen years. That’s me in the middle  of a class picture – maybe 6th grade. I felt like the ugly, brainy outsider and retreated into intellectual oddity.

I’ve learned to cover up the alienation from myself and others, to say the culturally appropriate thing and deflect attention away from myself and onto others. I’ve devoted my life to modernizing education and other “high impact” social causes. I’ve accomplished enough, given enough, to feel I’ve paid any debt owed to my society.

When I tell people I’ve been fighting depression all my life they respond, “Oh no, not you, Liza. You’re always smiling and right on top of things.” That’s what it looks like from the outside because I have made sure nobody sees me when I’m vulnerable and can’t cope.

 

80 is different. I’m no longer climbing  a career ladder or building institutions. I’m cleaning up the messes in preparation for passing on all those responsibilities. But it’s the met responsibilities, the fulfilled obligations, the kept promises that have gotten me out of bed in the past. That pressure has been a dike that kept the depression within its banks and the alienation at bay. Now my psychological armor is peeling away and I’m having to face my inner demons without the excuse that focusing on myself is somehow “selfish”.

It’s time to reconnect with the curious, exploratory, hopeful character I was as an infant, a toddler, a child before “self” became “selfish”. And you’ll just have to wait and see whether I ever feel like writing Episode 2!

 

 

 

 

 

 

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How will life have changed by 2040?



Looking at the past from the future (photo by Liza Loop)

What stands out as most significant to you? Why? What is most likely to be gained and lost in the next 15 or so years? Here are my positive and negative scenarios…

I imagine positive and negative futures for the year 2040 without predicting whether or which are most likely to occur. Most significant, and a component in both scenarios, is an increase in humanity’s ability to produce the goods and services necessary for individual human survival accompanied by a decrease in both environmental pollution and erosion of stocks of natural capital. This boils down to the potential for what has been called “the age of abundance”. Let’s take a quick look at some positives and negatives while noting that an increase in our ability to do something does not imply that it is likely to happen.
In the positive take, by 2040 ordinary people will have far more choice in lifestyle and decreased risk of dying from disease (genetic, environmental, or contagious), exposure (to cold, heat, lack of food or water, and poisons), or civil violence (either as wide scale war, personal attack, or small group terrorism). Accidental death may be unchanged or increase because some people may choose to take more risks. Death by abortion or infanticide is likely to be less frequent as we become more skilled at preventing conception.
A survey of the living will reveal people enjoying a much broader range of lifestyles without the social stigma that was attached to many lifestyles in the 2020s. For example, voluntary ‘homelessness’ or ‘nomadism’ will be considered a valid choice at any age. Similarly, many more people are choosing ‘simplicity’ or ‘sparse’ paths in order to avoid the responsibility of caring for and storing possessions they don’t use every day even when they reside in one geographic location.
With the decline of ‘owning stuff’ as the primary indicator of social status, there is a rise in acclaim for people who contribute by caring for others or by producing and donating artistic creations. The existence of Universal Basic Income and effective Universal Education permits social service workers, artists, adventurers, and scholars to eschew wealth accumulation and focus on their avocations. At the same time, those who so choose are free to exercise the historic values of control of goods and services in excess of their ability to consume them.
Lost in this scenario is the necessity for competition which many people in the 2020s still rely on as a primary motivator. Abundance is a condition where there are enough basic resources to eliminate zero-sum games and if-you-live-I-must-die conundrums. Under abundance, competition is only one of many lifestyle choices for humans.
Another “loss” I hope for by 2040 is the high value placed on large families. Rather than proud parents enjoying being surrounded by 10 of their own children, in 2040 a ‘family’ of 12 or 20 would include great grandparents and 3rd cousins as well as parents and children. This is an example of how a relatively small change in social attitudes can have profound effects on how humans impact the planet.
A negative view of life in 2040 incorporates the trends and fears being discussed now in 2023 and 24. Little has changed in our social and economic institutions over the past two centuries. This has led to further concentration of wealth and growing dysfunction in global civil society. The power brokers of 15 years ago have co opted the increase in productive capacity enabled by machine automation and AI without instituting compensating channels for redistribution of what has been produced. Stockpiles of consumer goods are targets to be ‘liberated’. The military-industrial complex survives on the demand generated by ongoing small wars that have not yet succeeded in destroying the worldwide productive infrastructure rather than on genuine human need. Population growth has continued apace resulting in an exponential rise in the number of humans living in extreme poverty, misery, and despair. The ubiquity of video communication allows rising aspirations among the world’s poor and physical migration as they are continuously exposed to narratives of luxury they cannot attain.
Of particular interest to educators in this negative scenario is the lost opportunity to spread know-how among the less fortunate. High aspiration without the knowledge and skills to fulfill these wants decreases overall perception of well-being even under conditions of increasing availability of food, water, consumer goods, and health care. In this negative future, we have continued to train AIs and each other that the goal of educating humans is to enable them to be successful competitors in the employment market at the same time that we are decreasing the demand for human muscle and brain power. Unemployment is rampant while employers lament the lack of adequately trained workers.
This view is frighteningly likely given that AGI is still way beyond the 2040 horizon. While there is no reason to anticipate that an AGI would spontaneously develop the competitive, amoral, greedy personality exhibited by some humans, there is also no reason to assume that guideposts against such an outcome will be put in place by today’s researchers and developers.
Why do I envision these changes for 2040? It is because the environmental conditions under which humans evolved have changed while many of our socially reinforced values have lagged behind. Behaviors that were a ‘good fit’ for humans existing ‘in the wild’ no longer ensure our individual survival from birth to the time our children reach reproductive age. Like many other species, humans are able to produce many more offspring than they are able to nurture. By maintaining the belief that every child we are able to conceive is innately valuable and should have a right to life, we endanger ourselves and those with whom we share the planet. By relying on an economic theory founded on an assumption of scarcity, we inhibit our willingness to embrace abundance even in the face of the capacity to produce it. AI technology accelerates our productive capacity. However, if we continue to train both neural networks and semantic systems with rules, data, and beliefs that sustained us during eons past but ignore today’s realities, we cannot blame the AIs for the result.

For more from Liza, please visit and comment on:

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Is climate change going to wipe out humanity? No!

Desolated city

Creator: gremlin Credit: Getty Images

The disastrous effects of a changing climate – famine, floods, fires and extreme heat – threaten our very existence.

https://www.un.org/en/content/common-agenda-report/summary.shtml

This quote, from the very first page of the United Nations Common Agenda Report Summary, is wrong. Yes, there is a very real threat – but it isn’t a threat to the “very existence” of humanity. It is highly unlikely that climate change will cause such widespread death in the human population to reduce the 7,953,952,577 or so individuals now alive down to the 500 or so that would be necessary to repopulate the Earth.

What is threatened? The way of life enjoyed by the wealthy people who live in the richest nations on the planet. Yes, the poor are likely to die first under the influence of climate degradation. The wealthy will be able to move inland, to higher ground, or further from the Equator. They will be able to buy expensive food and build fire resistant, air conditioned homes. Yes, quality of life is likely to decline even for the rich. But no, climate change is not going to wipe out the human race. A comet strike? That could do it. Huge solar flares? Possibly. Global nuclear war? We might not survive that. But climate warming due to human activity? This is a self-regulating problem.

Why is climate change self-regulating? Because, as changing climate conditions kills off our excessive population, poorest first, it will also decrease the industrial activity that causes it. Humans will lose the technical capacity to keep pumping carbon and other pollutants into the atmosphere. Without such interference the planet will reach equilibrium again. Overall mean temperatures may be hotter than the previous they have been in more than 100,000 years but, as a species, we are likely to adapt.

 

The last time the Earth was this warm was 125,000 years ago

https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2017/01/18/hottest-year-on-record/96713338/

 

Modern humans have been around at least 196,000 years and maybe as much as 300,000 years.  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_modern_human). They have lived through major climate changes that they did not cause. Some of us more modern people will too.

I’m not suggesting that there is nothing to worry about. The possibility of knocking human progress back to the stone age is no laughing matter. The likelihood of a global population collapse as cultures struggle to adapt to warmer and more volatile weather is not fun to contemplate. But does exaggerating the consequences of climate change help or hinder the popular crusade to halt human impact on planet-wide weather? By suggesting that the human race will not survive we make it easier to dismiss the whole issue.

IMHO, overstating the consequences of climate change empowers climate change deniers.

Flames rise from the remains of a house that burned down in Santa Rosa. (Jeff Chiu/AP)

 

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Internet hopes and fears in 10 years

I just filled out a survey about what I think the best and worst consequences of digital technology are going to be for humans. I’m in a sort of cynical mood but perhaps you’ll find my responses interesting. If you find the questions stimulating, do feel free to reply with some of your own answers. I love comparing points of view.

BEST AND MOST BENEFICIAL changes

* Human-centered development of digital tools and systems – safely advancing human progress in these systems
Nature’s experiments are random, not intentional or goal directed. We humans operate in a similar way, exploring what is possible and then trimming away most of the more hideous outcomes. We will continue to develop devices that do the tasks humans used to do thereby saving us both mental and physical labor. This trend will continue resulting in more leisure time available for non-survival pursuits.

* Human connections, governance and institutions – improving social and political interactions
We will continue to enjoy expanded synchronous communication that will include an increasing variety of sensory data. Whatever we can transmit in near real time we will also be able to store and retrieve to enjoy later – even after death. This could result in improved social and political interactions but not necessarily.

* Human rights – abetting good outcomes for citizens.
Increased communication will not advance human “rights” but it might make human “wrongs” more visible so that they can be diminished.

* Human knowledge – verifying, updating, safely archiving and elevating the best of it
Advances in digital storage and retrieval will let us preserve and transmit larger quantities of human knowledge. Whether what is stored is verifiable, safe, or worthy of “elevation” is an age-old question and not significantly changed by digitization.

* Human health and well-being – helping people be safer, healthier, happier
Huge advances in medicine and the ability to manipulate genetics are in store. This will be beneficial to some segments of the population. Agricultural efficiency resulting in increased plant-based food production as well as artificial, meat-like protein will provide the possibility of eliminating human starvation. This could translate into improved well-being – or not.

* Other – you are welcome to write about an area that does not fit in the categories listed above
IMHO, the most beneficial outcomes of our “store and forward” technologies are to empower individuals to access the world’s knowledge and visual demonstrations of skill directly, without requiring an educational institution to act as “middleman”. Learners will be able to hail teachers and learning resources just like they call a ride service today.

yellow robot looking to the right, standing in front of white building
MOST HARMFUL OR MENACING changes

The biggest threat to humanity posed by current digital advances is the possibility of switching from an environment of scarcity to one of abundance. Humans evolved, both physically and psychologically, as prey animals eeking out a living from an inadequate supply of resources. Those who survived were both fearful and aggressive, protecting their genetic relatives, hoarding for their families, and driving away or killing strangers and nonconformists. Although our species has come a long way toward peaceful and harmonious self-actualization,  vestiges of the old fearful behavior persist. 

Consider what motivates the continuance of copyright laws when the marginal cost of providing access to a creative work approaches zero. Should the author continue to be paid beyond the cost of producing the work?

* Human-centered development of digital tools and systems – falling short of advocates’ goals
This is a repeat of the gun violence argument. Does the problem lie with the existence of the gun or the actions of the shooter?

* Human connections, governance and institutions – endangering social and political interactions
Any major technology change endangers the social and political status quo. The question is, can humans adapt to the new actions available to them. We are seeing new opportunities to build marketplaces for the exchange of goods and services. This is creating new opportunities to scam each other in some very old (snake oil) and very new (online ransomware) ways. We don’t yet know how to govern or regulate these new abilities. In addition, although the phenomenon of confirmation bias or echo chambers is not exactly new (think “Christendom” in 15th century Europe), word travels faster and crowds are larger than they were 6 centuries ago. So is digital technology any more threatening today than guns and roads were then? Every generation believe the end is nigh and brought on by change toward “wickedness”. If change is dangerous than we are certainly in for it!

* Human rights – harming the rights of citizens
The biggest threat here is that humans will not be able to overcome their fear and permit their fellows to enjoy the benefits of abundance brought about by automation and AI.

* Human knowledge – compromising or hindering progress.
The threat lies in increasing human dependance on machines – both mechanical and digital. We are at risk of forgetting how to take care of ourselves without them. Increasing leisure and abundance might seem like “progress” but they can also lull us into believing that we don’t need to stay mentally and physically fit and agile.

* Human health and well-being – threatening individuals’ safety, health and happiness
In today’s context of increasing ability to extend healthy life, the biggest threat is human overpopulation. We don’t get too upset if thousands of lemmings jump off a cliff but a large number of human deaths is a no no, no matter how small a percentage of the total population it is. Humanity cannot continue to improve its “health and well-being” indefinitely if it remains planet bound. Our choices are to put more effort into building extraterrestrial human habitat or self-limiting our numbers. In the absences of one of these alternatives, one group of humans is going to be deciding which members of other groups live or die. This is not a likely recipe for human happiness.

* Other – you are welcome to write about an area that does not fit in the categories listed above

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