Monthly Archives: January 2023

Internet hopes and fears in 10 years

I just filled out a survey about what I think the best and worst consequences of digital technology are going to be for humans. I’m in a sort of cynical mood but perhaps you’ll find my responses interesting. If you find the questions stimulating, do feel free to reply with some of your own answers. I love comparing points of view.

BEST AND MOST BENEFICIAL changes

* Human-centered development of digital tools and systems – safely advancing human progress in these systems
Nature’s experiments are random, not intentional or goal directed. We humans operate in a similar way, exploring what is possible and then trimming away most of the more hideous outcomes. We will continue to develop devices that do the tasks humans used to do thereby saving us both mental and physical labor. This trend will continue resulting in more leisure time available for non-survival pursuits.

* Human connections, governance and institutions – improving social and political interactions
We will continue to enjoy expanded synchronous communication that will include an increasing variety of sensory data. Whatever we can transmit in near real time we will also be able to store and retrieve to enjoy later – even after death. This could result in improved social and political interactions but not necessarily.

* Human rights – abetting good outcomes for citizens.
Increased communication will not advance human “rights” but it might make human “wrongs” more visible so that they can be diminished.

* Human knowledge – verifying, updating, safely archiving and elevating the best of it
Advances in digital storage and retrieval will let us preserve and transmit larger quantities of human knowledge. Whether what is stored is verifiable, safe, or worthy of “elevation” is an age-old question and not significantly changed by digitization.

* Human health and well-being – helping people be safer, healthier, happier
Huge advances in medicine and the ability to manipulate genetics are in store. This will be beneficial to some segments of the population. Agricultural efficiency resulting in increased plant-based food production as well as artificial, meat-like protein will provide the possibility of eliminating human starvation. This could translate into improved well-being – or not.

* Other – you are welcome to write about an area that does not fit in the categories listed above
IMHO, the most beneficial outcomes of our “store and forward” technologies are to empower individuals to access the world’s knowledge and visual demonstrations of skill directly, without requiring an educational institution to act as “middleman”. Learners will be able to hail teachers and learning resources just like they call a ride service today.

yellow robot looking to the right, standing in front of white building
MOST HARMFUL OR MENACING changes

The biggest threat to humanity posed by current digital advances is the possibility of switching from an environment of scarcity to one of abundance. Humans evolved, both physically and psychologically, as prey animals eeking out a living from an inadequate supply of resources. Those who survived were both fearful and aggressive, protecting their genetic relatives, hoarding for their families, and driving away or killing strangers and nonconformists. Although our species has come a long way toward peaceful and harmonious self-actualization,  vestiges of the old fearful behavior persist. 

Consider what motivates the continuance of copyright laws when the marginal cost of providing access to a creative work approaches zero. Should the author continue to be paid beyond the cost of producing the work?

* Human-centered development of digital tools and systems – falling short of advocates’ goals
This is a repeat of the gun violence argument. Does the problem lie with the existence of the gun or the actions of the shooter?

* Human connections, governance and institutions – endangering social and political interactions
Any major technology change endangers the social and political status quo. The question is, can humans adapt to the new actions available to them. We are seeing new opportunities to build marketplaces for the exchange of goods and services. This is creating new opportunities to scam each other in some very old (snake oil) and very new (online ransomware) ways. We don’t yet know how to govern or regulate these new abilities. In addition, although the phenomenon of confirmation bias or echo chambers is not exactly new (think “Christendom” in 15th century Europe), word travels faster and crowds are larger than they were 6 centuries ago. So is digital technology any more threatening today than guns and roads were then? Every generation believe the end is nigh and brought on by change toward “wickedness”. If change is dangerous than we are certainly in for it!

* Human rights – harming the rights of citizens
The biggest threat here is that humans will not be able to overcome their fear and permit their fellows to enjoy the benefits of abundance brought about by automation and AI.

* Human knowledge – compromising or hindering progress.
The threat lies in increasing human dependance on machines – both mechanical and digital. We are at risk of forgetting how to take care of ourselves without them. Increasing leisure and abundance might seem like “progress” but they can also lull us into believing that we don’t need to stay mentally and physically fit and agile.

* Human health and well-being – threatening individuals’ safety, health and happiness
In today’s context of increasing ability to extend healthy life, the biggest threat is human overpopulation. We don’t get too upset if thousands of lemmings jump off a cliff but a large number of human deaths is a no no, no matter how small a percentage of the total population it is. Humanity cannot continue to improve its “health and well-being” indefinitely if it remains planet bound. Our choices are to put more effort into building extraterrestrial human habitat or self-limiting our numbers. In the absences of one of these alternatives, one group of humans is going to be deciding which members of other groups live or die. This is not a likely recipe for human happiness.

* Other – you are welcome to write about an area that does not fit in the categories listed above

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Watch what you sign up for – Hidden contracts and life in the digital stone age

Recently I needed some new domain names for a website I’m planning. Easy, right? Find one of those registration companies, search for the name you want, fill in the blanks, including the one that says you’ve read the “Terms and Conditions”, and plug in your credit card information.

Did you actually read those Terms and Conditions? Here’s section 20 (who gets to the 20th paragraph of legalese?) of the agreement I just signed.

I know this screen shot is a little hard to read so I’ll repeat what I underlined in green:

…that we own all…information…generated from the domain name database. You further agree and acknowledge that 
we own…(c) the name, postal address, e-mail address, voice telephone number,…all contacts for the domain name registration…

I’m not a lawyer but a simple English interpretation of this set of phrases could be that I just transferred ownership of my name and address to that registrar. I wouldn’t want to have to prove that this isn’t what the agreement means. Could it be that the registrar now has the right to sell my name, address, e-mail, and phone number to the highest bidder?

Perhaps the final sentence in the section is meant to reassure me: “We do not have any ownership interest in your specific personal registration information outside of our rights in our domain name database.” But my stuff is in your domain name database and you just said you own it.

Maybe if I had the stamina to read and understand all the clauses in the Registration Agreement I’d not be worried. Maybe if I were a lawyer…maybe if Section 1. didn’t mention that I am also agreeing to a Supplemental Agreement that is linked to this page:

I conclude that we are in the “stone age of the digital age“. We have begun to invent digital tools that enable humans to accomplish much that was impossible without such implements. But we have just begun the invention process. The tools and the rules we are establishing for their use (e.g. Terms and Conditions agreements) are rough – coarse compared with what our descendants will have. For now, we are all suffering from the virtual cuts and bruises (and crimes) that result from the crudeness of today’s digital instruments.

I hope this registrar doesn’t sell my personal information. I hope my bank (the one that requires me to take responsibility for the security of my financial information and then urges me to use online banking and “go paperless”) doesn’t get hacked. I hope the camera and microphone on my “smart phone” are not constantly surveilling me even when I think I’ve turned them off. Life in any stone age is risky…

By the way, have you ever looked at the “indemnification clause” in one of those many agreements you sign, or noticed that most contracts require that you give up your right to a jury trial? Just for fun, read the back of your parking garage ticket and hope that the guy pulling up next to you isn’t carrying any stones.

 

 

 

 

 

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